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Prediction or Prophecy?

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Cover of 'Prediction or Prophecy?'

Table of Contents

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    Book Overview
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    Chapter 1 Introduction
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    Chapter 2 Recent performance of economic forecasts
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    Chapter 3 A historical perspective on economic forecast performance
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    Chapter 4 Forecast performance in natural sciences
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    Chapter 5 Predictability of complex systems
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    Chapter 6 The quality of data
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    Chapter 7 Expectations and reflexiveness
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    Chapter 8 Sensitive dependence on initial conditions
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    Chapter 9 Experiment and simulation
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    Chapter 10 Unrealistic-assumption explanations
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    Chapter 11 Consequences for traditional decision making
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    Chapter 12 Rational decision making under uncertainty and ignorance
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    Chapter 13 Post-normal science
Attention for Chapter 3: A historical perspective on economic forecast performance
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