Data patterns that reliably precede US recessions
Article in Journal of Forecasting (April 2024)
Macroeconomic Patterns and Stories
Overview of attention for book
Table of Contents
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Altmetric BadgeBook Overview
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Altmetric BadgeChapter 1 Introduction: We Are Pattern-Seeking, Story-Telling Animals
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Altmetric BadgeChapter 2 Gross Domestic Product
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Altmetric BadgeChapter 3 The Components of GDP: C+I+G+X−M
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Altmetric BadgeChapter 4 Employment
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Altmetric BadgeChapter 5 Inflation and Interest Rates
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Altmetric BadgeChapter 6 Extrapolative Forecasting
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Altmetric BadgeChapter 7 Unwanted Idleness: Recessions and Recoveries
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Altmetric BadgeChapter 8 Recession Comparison Charts
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Altmetric BadgeChapter 9 Who Struggles and Who Does Well in Recessions?
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Altmetric BadgeChapter 10 Idleness Stories
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Altmetric BadgeChapter 11 Cycle Stories
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Altmetric BadgeChapter 12 Clues: Temporal Ordering of Components of GDP
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Altmetric BadgeChapter 13 More Clues: Episodic Forecasting with Components of Conference Board's Index of Leading Indicators
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Altmetric BadgeChapter 14 The Art of Drawing Causal Inferences from Nonexperimental Data
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Altmetric BadgeChapter 15 In Search of Recession Causes
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Altmetric BadgeChapter 16 The Life Cycle of US Expansions: Sputters and Spurts
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Altmetric BadgeChapter 17 Savings and Investment
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Altmetric BadgeChapter 18 Government
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Altmetric BadgeChapter 19 The External Deficit and the Value of the Dollar Hu's in Charge?
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Altmetric BadgeChapter 20 The Ups and Downs of Real Estate Values: Can You Rely on Your Home To Pay For Your Retirement?